Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Lichtman's Predictions, Benford's Law, and Voter Fraud

Quick reflections:

While some are turning to "prophets" and "prophecies" for some clue or answer (Nostradamus included), other's are turning to science (or quasi-science) and maths. Prof. Lichtman's prediction that Biden would win seems almost to have come true, while some are now turning to Benford's Law for forensic evidence to whether voter fraud has really occurred. 

But, how fool-proof are any of these?

  1. Not all "prophecies" can be 100% true for we see through a dark glass as Apostle Paul said. That also can mean that prophetic consonance cannot be treated as proof.
  2. Lichtman's prediction assumes a pattern of mass psychology and behavior. But, does it appropriately incorporate factors such as fraud and mediacracy? Needs check. 
  3. Benford's Law proves successful in detecting fraud in several areas; however, experts are skeptical if it applies to election results due to population variances involved. At the same time, application of the mathematical law to human decision-making raises the issue of freewill and determination. 
  4. Some have also turned to answer in the stars (astrology). It seems to them to be quite mathematical and deterministic. But, that raises even more complicated questions as to how historical events can be causally connected with starry movements. [The Magi saw a star and followed it to Bethlehem; but, the star did not cause the birth of Christ - that's the difference].

Ref:
Deckert, Joseph, et al. “Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud.” Political Analysis, vol. 19, no. 3, 2011, pp. 245–268. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/23011436. Accessed 11 Nov. 2020.

No comments :

Post a Comment